RESEARCH

Academic Publications, R&Rs

[6] “Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States,”  Economics Letters, 2019, 175, pp. 97-100. [download]

[5] “Labor Market Dynamics with Endogenous Labor Force Participation and On-the-Job Search,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2017, 75, pp. 28-51. [download]

[4] “Labor Market Impact of Massachusetts Health Care Reform: We’ve Only Scratched the Surface,” ASHEcon Newsletter, June 2016. [download]

[3] “Network Effects in Credit Market Access: Evidence from Istanbul (MA Thesis),” with Fikret Adaman and Oya Pinar Ardic, Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2013, 28, pp.9-32. [download]

[2] “Inflation Targeting: A Three-Decade Perspective,” with Salem Abo Zaid, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2011, 34(5), pp. 621-645. [download]

[1] “Hospital Choice: Survey Evidence from Istanbul,” with Fikret Adaman, Oya Pinar Ardic and Burcay Erus, Turkish Studies, 2009, 10(3), pp. 471-496. [download]

Working Papers

[7] “Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies,” with Marianna Kudlyak and Murat Tasci, April 2022. [download]
Media coverage: Hutchins Roundup    

[6] “Disappearing Routine Occupations and Declining Prime-Age Labor Force Participation,” November 2019. [download]

[5] “The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Force Participation,” with Willem Van Zandweghe, 2018. [download]

[4] “Health Care Reform or Labor Market Reform? A Quantitative Analysis of the Affordable Care Act,” with Makoto Nakajima, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 15-10, 2015. [download]

[3] “Health Care Reform and Self-Employment: Evidence From Massachusetts,” with Thealexa Becker, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 14-16, 2014.  [download]
Media coverage: BLS Monthly Labor Review        

[2] “Under-Investment in State Capacity: The Role of Inequality and Political Instability,” with Mauricio Cardenas, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 11-07, 2011.  [download]

[1] “Commodity Dependence and Fiscal Capacity,” with Mauricio Cardenas and Santiago Ramirez, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 11-08, 2011. [download]

Federal Reserve Publications

[16] “How Many Workers Are Truly “Missing” from the Labor Force?” Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, May 2022. [download]

[15] “Women without a College Degree, Especially Minority Mothers, Face a Steeper Road to Recovery,” Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2021 Q3. [download]
Media coverage: Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, CBS News 

[14] “Were Teleworkable Jobs Pandemic-Proof?,” with Thao Tran, Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, September 2020. [download]

[13] “Women Take a Bigger Hit in the First Wave of Job Losses due to COVID-19,” with Thao Tran, Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, April 2020. [download]
Media coverage: Forbes, BLS Monthly Labor Review, Reuters

[12] “Women are Driving the Recent Recovery in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation,” with Thao Tran, Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, December 2019. [download]

[11] “The Uneven Recovery in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation,” with Thao Tran, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Third Quarter 2019. [download]

[10] “Trends in the Labor Share Post-2000” with W. Blake Marsh and Thao Tran, Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, December 2018. [download]

[9] “Why Are Prime-Age Men Vanishing from the Labor Force?” Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, First Quarter 2018. [download]
Media coverage: Bloomberg, Nebraska Radio Network, Tampa Bay Times, Conversable Economist          

[8] “A New Estimate of the Natural Rate of Unemployment,” Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, November 2017. [download] 
Media coverage: Wall Street Journal Pro Central Banking

[7] “What is Behind the Recent Increase in Labor Force Participation?” with Jon Willis, Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, November 2016. [download]

[6] “Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility,” with Troy Davig, Nida Cakir-Melek, Jun Nie, and Lee Smith, Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, September 2015. [download]

[5] “Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility,” with Troy Davig, Nida Cakir-Melek, Jun Nie, and Lee Smith, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, September 2015. [download]

[4] “Opportunity Knocks: Improved Matching of Jobs and Workers,” with Jon Willis, Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, May 2015. [download]
Media coverage: Washington Post   

[3] “Does Health Care Reform Support Self-Employment?” with Thealexa Becker, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Third Quarter 2014. [download]
Media coverage: Wyoming Business Report  

[2] “Does Health Care Reform Support Self-Employment?” with Thealexa Becker, Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, September 2014. [download]

[1] “The Vanishing Middle: Job Polarization and Workers’ Response to the Decline in Middle-Skill Jobs,” with Jonathan L. Willis, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, First Quarter 2013. [download]
Media coverage: Bloomberg, U.S. Department of Education, Conversable Economist, Deseret News, NGS, Seattle Times