RESEARCH

Academic Publications, R&Rs

[7] “Health Care Reform or Labor Market Reform? A Quantitative Analysis of the Affordable Care Act,” with Makoto Nakajima, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 15-10, 2015. (revision requested by Review of Economic Dynamics)  [download]

[6] “Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States,”  Economics Letters, December 2018. [download]

[5] “Labor Market Dynamics with Endogenous Labor Force Participation and On-the-Job Search,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2017, 75, pp. 28-51.
               Cited by James Bullard (St.Louis Fed Review, 2014 Q1)
               Course Syllabus at Tufts University

[4] “Labor Market Impact of Massachusetts Health Care Reform: We’ve Only Scratched the Surface,” ASHEcon Newsletter, June 2016. [download]

[3] “Network Effects in Credit Market Access: Evidence from Istanbul (MA Thesis),” with Fikret Adaman and Oya Pinar Ardic, Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2013, 28, pp.9-32. [download]

[2] “Inflation Targeting: A Three-Decade Perspective,” with Salem Abo Zaid, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2011, 34(5), pp. 621-645. [download]

[1] “Hospital Choice: Survey Evidence from Istanbul,” with Fikret Adaman, Oya Pinar Ardic and Burcay Erus, Turkish Studies, 2009, 10(3), pp. 471-496. [download]

Working Papers

[5] NEW!!!  “Disappearing Routine Occupations and Declining Prime-Age Labor Force Participation,” November 2019. [download]

[4] “The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Force Participation,” with Willem Van Zandweghe, 2018. [download]

[3] “Health Care Reform and Self-Employment: Evidence From Massachusetts,” with Thealexa Becker, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 14-16, 2014.  [download]
               Covered by the BLS: Monthly Labor Review

[2] “Under-Investment in State Capacity: The Role of Inequality and Political Instability,” with Mauricio Cardenas, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 11-07, 2011.  [download]
              Cited in Tim Besley and Torsten Persson’s book: Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters. Princeton University Press, 2011

[1] “Commodity Dependence and Fiscal Capacity,” with Mauricio Cardenas and Santiago Ramirez, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 11-08, 2011. [download]

Work in Progress

[2] “Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies,” with Marianna Kudlyak and Murat Tasci.

[1] “Demographics and Industry Dynamics,” with Kim J. Ruhl and Jonathan L.Willis.

Federal Reserve Publications

[12] NEW!!! “Women are Driving the Recent Recovery in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation,” with Thao Tran, Kansas City Fed Economic Bulletin, December 2019. [download]

[11] NEW!!! “The Uneven Recovery in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation,” with Thao Tran Economic Review, Third Quarter 2019. [download]

[10] “Trends in the Labor Share Post-2000” with W. Blake Marsh and Thao Tran, Macro Bulletin, December 2018. [download]

[9] “Why Are Prime-Age Men Vanishing from the Labor Force?” Economic Review, First Quarter 2018. [download]
               Featured on the homepage of Bloomberg.com (Feb 2018)
Nebraska Radio Network
   Tampa Bay Times   Conversable Economist
Bloomberg.com (Oct 2018)

[8] “A New Estimate of the Natural Rate of Unemployment,” Macro Bulletin, November 2017. [download]             
                 (Media coverage: Wall Street Journal Pro Central Banking)

[7] “What is Behind the Recent Increase in Labor Force Participation?” with Jon Willis, Macro Bulletin, November 2016. [download]

[6] “Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility,” with Troy Davig, Nida Cakir-Melek, Jun Nie, and Lee Smith, Macro Bulletin, September 2015. [download]

[5] “Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility,” with Troy Davig, Nida Cakir-Melek, Jun Nie, and Lee Smith, Economic Review, September 2015. [download]

[4] “Opportunity Knocks: Improved Matching of Jobs and Workers,” with Jon Willis, Macro Bulletin, May 2015. [download]
               Covered by the Washington Post: Part 1 Part 2

[3] “Does Health Care Reform Support Self-Employment?” with Thealexa Becker, Economic Review, Third Quarter 2014. [download]
               Wyoming Business Report

[2] “Does Health Care Reform Support Self-Employment?” with Thealexa Becker, Macro Bulletin, September 2014. [download]

[1] “The Vanishing Middle: Job Polarization and Workers’ Response to the Decline in Middle-Skill Jobs,” with Jonathan L. Willis, Economic Review, First Quarter 2013. [download]
                Josh Barro-Bloomberg, U.S. Department of Education, Conversable Economist
               Deseret News, NGASeattle Times, Course Syllabus at Rutgers University