Professional Experience
Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, since June 2018
Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, July 2011–May 2018
Instructor, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, Istanbul, Turkey, Spring 2016
Visiting Scientist, Ozyegin University, Istanbul, Turkey, March-September 2016
Research Analyst, Brookings Institution, Global Economy and Development, August 2009–May 2011
Education
Ph.D., Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, August 2011
Dissertation Title: “Essays in Labor and Political Economics”
Main Advisor: John Haltiwanger
M.A., Economics, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey, June 2006
B.S., Physics, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey, June 2004
Fields of Concentration
Macroeconomics, Labor Economics, Health Economics
Publications
[10] “Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States,” Economics Letters, December 2018.
[9] “Why Are Prime-Age Men Vanishing from the Labor Force?” Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2018 Q1.
[8] “Labor Market Dynamics with Endogenous Labor Force Participation and On-the-Job Search,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2017, 75, pp.28-51.
[I 7] “Labor Market Impact of Massachusetts Health Care Reform: We’ve Only Scratched the Surface,” ASHEcon Newsletter, June 2016. (invited publication)
[6] “Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility” with Troy Davig, Nida Cakir-Melek, Jun Nie, and Lee Smith,, Economic Review, 2015 Q3.
[5] “Does Health Care Reform Support Self-Employment?” with Thealexa Becker, Economic Review, 2014 Q3.
[4] “The Vanishing Middle: Job Polarization and Workers’ Response to the Decline in Middle-Skill Jobs,” with Jonathan L. Willis, Economic Review, 2013 Q1.
[3] “Network Effects in Credit Market Access: Evidence from Istanbul,” with Fikret Adaman and Oya Pinar Ardic, Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2013, 28, pp. 9-32.
[2] “Inflation Targeting: A Three-Decade Perspective,” with Salem Abo Zaid, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2011, 34(5), pp. 621-645.
[1] “Hospital Choice: Survey Evidence from Istanbul,” with Fikret Adaman, Oya Pinar Ardic and Burcay Erus, Turkish Studies, 2009, 10(3), pp. 471-496.
Working Papers
[5] “The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Force Participation,” with Willem Van Zandweghe, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 18-08, 2018.
[4] “Health Care Reform or Labor Market Reform? A Quantitative Analysis of the Affordable Care Act,” with Makoto Nakajima. (revision requested by Review of Economic Dynamics)
[3] “Under-Investment in State Capacity: The Role of Inequality and Political Instability,” with Mauricio Cardenas, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 11-07, 2011.
[2] “Health Care Reform and Self-Employment: Evidence From Massachusetts,” with Thealexa Becker, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 14-16, 2014.
[1] “Commodity Dependence and State Capacity,” with Mauricio Cardenas and Santiago Ramirez, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 11-08, 2011.
Work in Progress
[3] “Job Polarization and the Decline in Labor Force Participation Among Prime-Age Individuals.”
[2] “Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies,” with Marianna Kudlyak and Murat Tasci.
[1] “Demographics and Industry Dynamics,” with Kim J. Ruhl and Jonathan L.Willis.
Other Publications
[6] “Trends in the Labor Share Post-2000,” with W. Blake Marsh and Thao Tran, Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, December 2018.
[5] “A New Estimate of the Natural Rate of Unemployment,” Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, November 2017.
[4] “What is Behind the Recent Increase in Labor Force Participation?” with Jon Willis, Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, November 2016.
[3] “Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility” with Troy Davig, Nida Cakir-Melek, Jun Nie, and Lee Smith, Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, September 2015.
[2] “Opportunity Knocks: Improved Matching of Jobs and Workers” with Jon Willis, Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, May 2015.
[1] “Does Health Care Reform Support Self-Employment?” with Thealexa Becker, Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, September 2014.
Seminars
Federal Reserve Board (Brownbag, 2018), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2018), University of Kansas, Department of Economics (2018), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2017), Sabanci University, Department of Economics (2016), Bahcesehir University, Department of Economics (2016), Ozyegin University, Department of Economics (2015), University of California Santa Barbara, Department of Economics (2015), Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2014), University of Kansas, Department of Economics (2014), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2011), Federal Reserve Board (2011)
Conferences
Society for Economic Dynamics Meetings (2017), Midwest Macro Meetings (2016), All Istanbul (2016), CADRE Workshop (2015), Koc University Winter Workshop (2014), Midwest Macro Meetings (2014), Society for Economic Dynamics Meetings (2014), Midwest Macro Meetings (2013), System Applied Microeconomics Research Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (May 2013), Society for Computational Economics Conference (2012), Midwest Macro Meetings (2012), System Applied Micro Research Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (May 2012), System Committee on Business and Financial Analysis Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2011), Annual Conference of the Southern Economic Association (2010), Annual Conference of the American Economic Association, New Orleans (2008)
Discussions
[5] “Old, Frail, and Uninsured: Accounting for Features of the U.S. Long-Term Care Insurance Market” by R. Anton Braun, Karen A. Kopecky, and Tatyana Koreshkova, at the Joint Central Bankers’ Conference, Cleveland Fed, 2018.
[4] “Skills, Occupations, and the Allocation of Talent Over the Business Cycle,” by Maximiliano Dvorkin, at the CADRE Workshop, KC Fed, May 9-10, 2017.
[3] “The Ins and Outs of Entrepreneurship: Explaining the Decline in Self-Employment,” by Mark E. Schweitzer and Scott Shane, at the CADRE Workshop, KC Fed, May 4-5, 2015.
[2] “Labor Market Polarization Over the Business Cycle,” by Chris Foote and Richard Ryan, at the “System Applied Microeconomics Conference, NY Fed, May 16-17, 2013.
[1] “Wherefore Labor Force Participants?” by Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and Fernando Rios-Avila, at the “System Applied Microeconomics Conference, Richmond Fed, May 17-18, 2012.
Awards
The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) 2221 Visiting Scientist Fellowship (2016), Southern Economic Association Student Membership (2010), Travel Grants, University of Maryland, College Park, Department of Economics (2008 and 2011), Graduate Assistantship, University of Maryland, College Park (2006-2009), Graduate Assistantship, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey (2004-2006)
Teaching Experience
Instructor, Labor Economics, Bogazici University (Spring 2016), Instructor, International Economics, University of Maryland, College Park (Spring 2009, Summer 2009 and Winter 2010), Instructor, Introductory Microeconomics, University of Maryland, College Park (Summer 2008, Winter 2009 and Summer 2010), Teaching Assistant, Intermediate Macroeconomics, University of Maryland, College Park (Fall 2007), Teaching Assistant, Introductory Microeconomics, University of Maryland, College Park (Fall 2006, Spring 2007, Spring 2008 and Fall 2008)
Refereeing Experience
AEJ: Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Labour Economics, European Economic Review, World Development, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Southern Economic Journal, Economic Review, Economic Systems, Journal of Development Studies, Economic Inquiry, Economics Letters, LABOUR.